Business Planning and Forecasting Research Paper

Business Planning and Forecasting - Research Paper Example 2008 48 51 21 34 i. Scatter Diagram: As the data describes sales for each season for a particular year, with no sign of any multiplicative or exponential jump, therefore the additive model should be used to analyze the data. The main reason is the progression, which is quite straight-forward, as compared to multiplicative plotting, which is more exponential, with later figures of comparatively much higher values. ii. Moving Average for Calculation of Trend: For the calculation of moving averages, the process is done in a way such that each season's moving average has been calculated with the data provided of the past 3 years. The moving averages for each season are as follows. iii. Seasonal Indices: Year Quarter Original Values(Y) 4 Figures Moving Total 4 Figures Moving Average 2 Figures Moving Total 2 Figures Moving Average(T) Ratio-to-Moving Average(%)(Y)/ (T)*100 (Seasonal Indices) 2006 1 46 2 53 3 18 4 33 150 37.5 2007 1 52 156 39 76.5 38.25 47.05882353 2 47 150 37.5 76.5 38.25 86.2745098 3 20 152 38 75.5 37.75 137.7483444 4 39 158 39.5 77.5 38.75 121.2903226 2008 1 48 154 38.5 78 39 51.28205128 2 51 158 39.5 78 39 100 3 21 159 39.75 79.25 39.625 121.1356467 4 34 154 38.5 78.25 39.125 130.3514377 iv. Trend Extension: The trend for 2009 is calculated by first formulating a regression formula for the new values using the given data. The methodology used is the Method of Least Squares, as follows: Quarter(X) Original...The main reason is the progression, which is quite straight-forward, as compared to multiplicative plotting, which is more exponential, with later figures of comparatively much higher values. For the calculation of moving averages, the process is done in a way such that each season's moving average has been calculated with the data provided of the past 3 years. The moving averages for each season are as follows. The initial scatter plot suggested that the autumn sales are the lowest of all the seasons. Also when we calculated the moving averages the result came that the seasonal variations in sales are smothered in the overall run. On this base the new sales figures for 2009 were calculated which were as given above. When the real values of the sales of the three brothers are seen and compared, taking one year at a time, then its is observed that when we take 2006 as a base year, we find that the sales figures for Dick was higher than his two brothers'. Also Rick's sales were better than Mick's, although the actual figures are lower. Mick's sales real values have been going continuously down, while those of Rick's have gone down only in 2008. For Dick, the real value of sales has been going up continuously.